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How To Find Elusive Football Draws
Football draws – hard to find, aren’t they? Eight of these are the key to winning a UK treble football pool, but you may only want to find two or three for a special fixed odds bet or a series of trebles, perhaps in an Australian, German, Spanish or Italian league. Typically, there will be an average of 9 goals in a league weekend during the UK football season and 49 matches in the cup, and of these, many will be predictable using a good prediction system. Scoreless football averages about 4-5 per week.
How do we find them?
Well, during the British League season, most teams play close to ‘form’, but the cup games are more of a lottery when the ‘mass killing’ happens more often, and if you are serious about winning football pools, the better avoid it. So, to begin with, we only bet when the odds are optimal, and that means league games. In fact, we don’t bet when ‘form’ is vulnerable – for example on Boxing Day.
With a good football draw prediction system, you can track form and eliminate those games that are certain home wins – typically 22 home wins, many of which were easy to predict. As for away wins, they are more difficult to predict and there will be an average of 13-14 away wins per week.
So let’s say we can get 90% home wins – that’s about 19 games and maybe 50% away wins – that’s another 7 games. So, from the coupon in total, with a reliable prediction system, we can expect to predict 26 matches (home and away). Out of these 23 games, we have to remove 8 football games.
Now, with a good plan or perm that covers maybe 17 or 18 predictions – some plans even offer coverage of 24 games, then you can see that the probability of getting 8 football games in a row increases significantly. Of course, using a plan means you sacrifice perfection to achieve greater coverage (after all, there are 451 million ways to pick 8 football matches out of 49). You probably won’t hit the jackpot, but you’ll have more low-cost wins and should move into profit.
So you can see that an effective football prediction system is essential.
What are the key aspects of a good football prediction system?
Well, apart from knowing when to bet and when to bet and throw away your money, you need to be able to analyze the form and make predictions for football matches. How far back do you have to go when it comes to form? How does a team promoted from the Championship fare in the Premier League (and vice versa?)
Use statistics selectively
My guess is that the first few weeks of the season are when we don’t get a reliable picture of form in a league division and it takes a few weeks for a pattern to emerge. Some experts look at long-term patterns and suggest that some teams are experts at winning at home, while others have good (or bad) away records. This may be useful in the final analysis, but I don’t consider these things when looking for a football draw. So how far back should we look? Certainly not last season – I’m working with less than half a dozen games (league games only).
Rate the teams
Then, you need to have a consistent way of evaluating the team’s performance – and it needs to take into account the strength of the opponent. This will leave you with a list of teams and performance ratings.
Now you have to look at the upcoming matches and compare the ranking of the teams. Adjust home advantage and make any other adjustments you see fit (new player or manager, injury to key player?). Then, sort the list by the most likely outcome of the game. At one end of the list would be potential home wins. At the other end, potential victories will be on the road. In the middle will be juice – there we will find the elusive football game block.
Find the juice
Then, you take the average number of matches and depending on your budget, decide how many people you want to cover using your plan or plan. You can expect to win 11-14 football matches in those weeks.
If we can get 60% of the draw on 13 or 14, then we play 8 – 9. This is where a good staking plan comes into play to maximize your chances of winning a football on a line.
It is important to see that this is a percentage method and you are just trying to get the odds on your side and find most of those elusive games. A few wins a season should pay you off, and as always, the devil is in the details!
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