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Do Football Pools Systems Really Help to Win the Football Pools?
Football pool systems really work if they are based on proper statistical analysis. Why do systems work? Simply because football teams play is not random over long periods of time – teams actually play for wide formation.
There are two parts to solving the problem of how to win football pools. The first is statistical analysis – the system designer looks at the past results of teams and games, then develops a mathematical model that explains the results with the right degree of accuracy and allows predictions to be made on this basis.
In fact, the accuracy should only be slightly better than chance. In roulette, the casino makes its own money on an edge of 2-3%, in the long run. In football pools, this margin is enough in the long run, but we expected to do much better at times and win. Of course, we want to win enough to make up for the weeks we don’t win, so it’s a profitable exercise.
The second part of the soccer pool problem is coverage. Covering every possible combination in a 49-game coupon is not economical – there are 450 million ways to complete each of the eight draws. Of course, then it can even give eight points for a draw in one coupon. This is where “plans” and “promotions” come in. These are ways to cover 20 picks per coupon in such a way that we can have a reasonable conclusion when a tie results in 12-15 points per coupon. expected winnings if we have selected six or eight of these draws. Simply put, a plan can cover 20 picks so that there are 25,000 possible combinations of 8 matching games. This reduces the possibilities significantly.
There are several systems. Some are described in books available, for example, from Amazon; others can be downloaded online; there are spreadsheets; There is software. There are books that specialize in “perms” and software that do this. So, the perfect choice for those who are ready to dig around.
However, the entire process is based on correctly predicting the outcome of the game. For this (assuming you can’t earn thousands of pounds or dollars on a regular basis), then, after buying the system, the user needs to work to maintain the basic data on which the analysis is based. There are organizations that offer advice, and comprehensive collections of information and forecasts are available online (these are usually subscription-only). If the punter of the pools does not want to subscribe, then it will take several hours of work to prepare each entry.
The final key point is that in order to succeed in this arena, persistence is essential – a week that you lose may be a week that you win. After all, we work on a statistical basis.
In short, football pool systems can work if they are well designed and used correctly (ie work by the numbers and don’t let a person’s view of the likely outcome of the game influence the picks). If you are considering a system, any reputable system should be prepared to demonstrate a successful track record of results.
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