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My Bold Prediction: Evan Gattis Will Hit 40 HR and Drive in 120 RBI
El Oso Blanco. The man with the best nickname in the game, Evan Gattis. I’m sure after reading the title you’re thinking I’m crazy, don’t worry, that’s a normal reaction. There are things in baseball that make you sit back in your seat and go “wow”. That was my reaction the first time I saw Evan Gattis hit a running back. He had somewhat of an up and down season, but at the end of it I was sure of one thing; Evan Gattis is going to have a monster season in 2014. So sit back and let me turn your skeptical thinking into one of understanding and acceptance.
First things first, let’s talk about what Bear Man did last season. Gattis first caught my eye in spring training. If you haven’t read Gattis’ story, google it. Dude went from janitor to professional baseball in a year. Because of this, his arrival last year was relatively unknown. That was until he used the tree trunk, where he hit one at-bat for six homers in just 57 at-bats while hitting .368 in spring training. While yes, it was a small sample, it was enough for the Braves to place him on the MLB roster to start the season. It’s easy to see what the Braves were thinking. If you just look at the guy, you can see what makes them excited. Gattis is a lumbering man who stands at 6′ 4″, 230 pounds; his power was no fluke. If you need any convincing of his natural ability, consider that he connected with the longest bat last year at 486 feet You know, that’s how it is.
The second thing I want to point out is that Gattis is coming into his prime at the age of 27 in 2014. There is a lot of statistical evidence that 27 is the age at which players mature, so I don’t want to. details about it. This may seem strange to some since Gattis was a rookie in 2013, but as I mentioned earlier, Gattis didn’t really have a typical path to the majors. Usually, when you look at a 26-year-old rookie, you’re looking at a AAAA player, but not in Gattis’ case. This means that we have yet to see Gattis at his physical peak, which is hard to believe if you look at him. This leads me to my final point, Gattis put up about 40 home runs last year, they were just sneaky.
Let’s just look at Gattis last season: .243 AVG, .291 OBP, 21 HR, 65 RBI. Well, let’s put this into context; he did it in just over half a season of at-bats, 354. That would change in 2014, however, as McCann took his talents to the Big Apple, leaving the starting job to Mr. Evan Gattis. With most catchers I’d say it’s hard to get 600 at-bats because they often sit one day a week, but given that Gattis can play in the field, I think it’s definitely something. that he can get. If we just take what Gattis did last year and project that if he played every day, you get 35 HR, 110 RBI. It’s such a beast of a catch that you can ignore the AVG and OBP. Now I know these numbers are a little short of my prediction, but I have a perfectly reasonable explanation for this, and it just takes a little digging.
If we break down Gattis 1st and 2nd half from last year, you can see that the power dropped by 14 HR in the first half and only 7 HR in the second half. When I saw this, I thought it was strange, considering most of these other figures were in the same, so I had to dig. That’s when I brought up his flyball level split numbers from last year. Now, if Gattis was in some kind of funk, we would expect his flyball rate to drop somewhat, and we saw a slight drop from 47.3 to 42.2, but not enough to make up for the difference. Now, if you look at his HR/FB%, you can see that it dropped from a ridiculous 23% in the first half to 11.3% in the second half. 11.3 is a really low number for a guy like Gattis, and it could be an indicator that the guy has been unlucky. That’s where I think it’s going to be at home 5 from there. Hopefully, if he’s nice to them, the baseball gods will give up on him and he can go a full season without bad luck.
So what does all this mean? This means that Evan Gattis is a bear of a man and he is ready to take the position of baseball player to a new level and if you don’t get there now, you will be shaking your head at the end of the season. I don’t think I’ve had any crazy arguments here, and I hope you’ll agree. I don’t think the total number of fantasy players has caught up to Gattis yet, so I think he’ll be a huge steal in 2014. drafting a high average guy to compensate him because that’s one thing he struggles with. But nobody is perfect, right? If he did everything, it would not be fair to others.
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