What Are The Scores Of The Football Games Today What Are the Odds of Winning the Football Pools?

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What Are the Odds of Winning the Football Pools?

Winning football pools regularly seems like a dream (or pure fantasy) for many. This can be done if you have a system. How can you work out the odds? This is a question many people ask!

Let’s look at the main possibilities. With a coupon of 49 games (games), we want to determine the winning line of 8 draws in the potential UK treble pools if we get the 1st dividend (a draw or SD is a result where both teams finish) to the same number of targets, not zero). If we only contribute 1 line (nobody does, but put that aside for now), then the odds of picking a correct 8 match out of 49 are about 450 million to 1. In the British lottery, the odds are 14 million to 1 for a six-number combination, compared to

If we contribute 45,000 rows per input, then this reduces the odds (on a random basis) to about 10,000 to 1. It gets a lot better. Now there are problems. There will not always be 8 SD results in a given coupon and sometimes there may be as many as 15 or even more. During the latter half of 2009, the number of draws (both SD and scoreless draws) varied between 12% (1 scoreless and 5 draws) and 38% (5 scoreless and 13 SD) of the coupon. The maximum number of draws in 12 weeks was 14. See the attached diagram.

Let’s take a week where 13 points were tied. With 13 such wins, 1287 possible combinations of 8 are needed for a dividend of 1. This helps our odds a lot – 10,000 to 1 becomes 7.77 to 1 (well, 8 to 1 to keep it simple). This is with a random selection of our 45,000 lines.

Now, suppose soccer teams play formation (not always or consistently correct), but let’s say we can predict the plays with 60% accuracy within our selection. This means we are 20% better off with probability (10% edge above 50% chance). So the odds of 8 to 1 now become 6.4 to 1 (or 13/2 if we were betting on horses). There are other ways to tip the odds in our favor and many more things to make the system work, but I hope this article gave you a taste!

(c) Phil Marks 2009

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