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Gab Session – The Maddest Of Marches
How big will this NCAA men’s college basketball tournament be?
I mean, sure, the George Mason thing was great last year, and let’s not forget that Wichita St. and Bradley made it to the Sweet 16, LSU shocked Duke, Kansas lost in the first round for the second straight year, a # The 14 seed (Northwestern St.) stunned the #3 seed (Iowa) and #2 Tennessee needed a blowout to defeat #15 Winthrop.
We probably don’t even have that much of an upset this year, and I can practically guarantee you that no one from the Colonial Athletic Association will make it to the Final Four. But a combination of factors is coming together to make this year one of the toughest years to fill your office bracket. Here’s why:
Students! For the past decade, guys like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant have been jumping straight into the NBA, but now they’re playing at least one year of college hoops. This leads to big surprises. Who would have thought Texas would even be in the tournament this year after losing all five starters from the Elite Eight, let alone a deep threat?
Lower school students who drop out. And while that’s all well and good, you also have much less quality depth at traditional power schools because their teeth don’t last four years. This is the great equalizer: LaMarcus Aldridge (Texas, #2 in ’06 NBA draft), Tyrus Thomas (LSU, #4), Rudy Gay (UConn, #7), Patrick O’Bryant (Bradley, #9), Ronnie Brewer (Arkansas, #14), Cedric Simmons (NC, #15), Sean Williams (Memphis, #17), Quincy Dubey (Rutgers, #19), Renaldo Balkman (South Carolina, #20), Rajon Rondo (Kentucky), (No. 21), Marcus Williams (UConn, No. 22), Josh Boone (UConn, No. 23), Kyle Lowry (Villanova, No. 24), Shannon Brown (Michigan State, No. 25) and Jordan Farmar (UCLA, No. 26) . All of these kids left before their fourth year, as we expect Oden, Durant and others to do after 2007. This continued culture of talent drain makes the little guy a little closer to the big guy.
Advertising for “non-traditional” schools. Fewer and fewer teams are dazzled by the national television attention of playing in the Big Dance. The Missouri Valley Conference gets more pubs than any other Britney region these days (okay, well, it’s close), so there’s nothing “mainstream” about the MVC. Winthrop has beaten Mississippi, Old Dominion and Missouri St. on the road this year and has given North Carolina, Maryland, Wisconsin and Texas A&M (their only four losses) a scare. They may not win the first round match, but they are sure not to be afraid of their opponent.
Who is the best seed? No one seems to want to be #1 this year. A month ago it was easy: North Carolina, Florida, UCLA and Wisconsin. After that, each of those schools started losing. UCLA just returned from the first round of the Pac-10 tournament. Carolina has dropped three of its last six games of the season. Florida has lost three of its last five. Wisconsin has lost two of its last three. Right now, Ohio St. is the top ranked team in the country, but man, they are young. Does anyone really expect to hold them together in six NCAA tournament games? Other possibilities for No. 1 seeds: Kansas, Texas A&M, Georgetown, Memphis (ew). There is no flawless team in the group.
Either way, it should be an amazing March. No team is without flaws, and few have a chance.
Boy, the NFL never sleeps. What do you think have been some of the best signings of the pro free-agent season so far?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: The two teams made a series of moves that made them the “co-stars” of the early 2007 free agency period. The New England Patriots shed their label as a “thrifty” team and really made a splash in free agency. Adalius Thomas was arguably the most sought-after defensive player on the market, while Wes Welker has quietly become one of the most versatile PR/KR/WRs in the NFL. They also added value to backup RB Sammy Morris to compensate for the loss of Corey Dillon. The San Francisco 49ers also did a lot to improve their terrible secondary, which ranked 26th in pass rush a year ago. Nate Clements is a Pro-Bowl-caliber DBm, while Michael Lewis is a solid, if unusual, upgrade at safety. On offense, the Niners added Ashley Lely, a deep threat to work in QB Alex Smith’s offensive arsenal.
I’m going to ask about a few specific NCAA Tournament games next week, but for now, can you give me your preliminary Final Four brackets?
BDB, BoDog.com: Let’s stop at oddsmakers Bodog for this one. Currently, the top four favorites to win the NCAA title are North Carolina (9/2), Florida (9/2), Ohio (6/1) and Kansas (6/1).
And give us a couple of teams ranked #9 or worse that you think have the best chance of a first-round upset?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Well, everyone lost Gonzaga when they lost Josh Heitvelt, but you can never forget the Zags come tournament time. After losing to a very tough Memphis team by one point on February 17th, Gonzaga won its last five games and captured the West Coast Conference tournament for the fourth straight season. Senior guard Derek Raivio carried the team and so far it’s working. Also watch out for Syracuse if it gets a bid. The Orange beat Georgetown on Feb. 26 and have won five of their last six games since a big fight back in late January.
Mouse or Sun? Sun or Mouse? I know Dallas was amazing in the regular season…do you see that translating to another trip to the NBA Finals? Is Phoenix good enough this time? Can San Antonio sneak up there?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: Teams that make the NBA Finals are rarely one-size-fits-all. So until Phoenix learns to play either defense or half-time attack, they are doubtful. However, at 9/4 to win it all, they also have their fair share of believers. San Antonio hides no one. Not with a roster that includes Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs are 7/2 to reach the NBA Finals and 6/1 to win. This is hardly representative of flying under the radar. According to oddsmakers Bodog, though, the team with the best shot is the Dallas Mavericks. They are a complete team that can beat San Antonio with a stifling defense and beat Phoenix with a stifling offense. The Mavs’ ability to play anyone’s style makes them a 1/1 favorite to return to the Finals and a 2/1 favorite to win the title.
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