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March Madness Odds and Sports Betting Tips: How To Win in the Big Dance, NCAA Tournament
In many cases, for example, what made us money in the regular season will do so in March, but there are many new angles to make money.
Form the Select Committee against Roxy and Company
With the exception of putting the ninth seed against the eighth seed, we still like to go with the seeding favorites in the higher seeded teams. That said, with the caveat of excluding the four games mentioned above, where seeds could still be dropped, there were tournaments where this didn’t apply.
But we’re more than happy to put our money on linemakers using fake eggs.
Emotions in the short term, Talent in the long term
When betting on afternoon lines we have a rare case where what seems too obvious is actually true. But people’s infatuation with betting on big chalk has prevented it from being a cash cow for the average Joe. Going with the number 16 seed in the first half definitely won over my teammates and I’ve had a nice spare change over the years.
Before making a final decision, I explore the game on the plate, but most of the time I put the top seed in the second half. For the most part, lower seeded guys aren’t playing in the biggest game of their lives. The team’s seniors often play in the final game of organized ball at any level. Others have final showcases for scouts from foreign leagues.
Finally, there isn’t a guy on the bottom dance teams who doesn’t dream of being in Lake Placid’s version of collegiate hoops or part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history.
All those intangibles in about 20 minutes usually go a long way to make up for the lack of talent. But 40-plus minutes means endless talent and depth, as Dick Vitale chants “Blowout City Baby” in the second half.
Also, if the bottom seed of the game is interesting for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half is an insight for a team that spent the first 20 minutes thinking more about the game two days later. Then the bubble bursts in anticipation.
After the faster and stronger top seed goes deeper, inevitably losing 10-0, all delusions of grandeur come crashing down on Kalmar State. The emotional roller coaster makes its descent. We cash in with sixteen sides in the first half and a huge chalk in the second.
Beware of the “Guard Dominant” trap
I hear it all the time, “It’s the point guard’s game.” After that comes the conclusion, “Disable the guards first”. This belief is not so much a myth as a matter of inductive rather than deductive reasoning.
The simple fact is that there are more guards than centers, so based on pure numbers alone, more guard oriented teams will advance. Of course, there will be more guard-oriented teams whose bubble comes at draft time as well. In fact, look at the bottom of any conference and you’ll find plenty of guard-oriented teams.
Truth be told, the teams with the big men are the teams with the biggest mismatches – literally and figuratively. However, watchdog-oriented enthusiasts don’t quite fall into the classic trap. In fact, smart players cripple teams as a whole.
Teams with great three-point shooters are definitely the best “shot in the dark” teams on the money line, but conversely, if they go cold, they can also struggle to counter the “pleasers.” They are high risk / high return, but there are also high return / low risk options.
Do not fall in love with old people
It’s a simple syllogism: teams with the best players win, the best players, with few exceptions, don’t stick around until their senior year, so the best teams aren’t a huge burden.
This indisputable truth is increasing year by year. I prefer a talented team to an experienced team.
In fact, I would be wary of the older favorites over a young team with a bigger advantage and nothing to lose.
On the other hand, I would never recommend always betting against the more experienced team. If you’re talking about a team that’s a ten-point dog (ie a team that’s not completely overpowered, but gets a decent number), there’s good reason to bet them, even if they’re not blind.
Assumptions about playing your last game in organized ball and showing it off
European scouts can inspire a competitive team to claw their way to the end, but I’d rather invest in a team like Arizona with short postseason exposure but high potential.
Delete the beautiful teams
One of the first questions that so-called “experts” get after the announcement of the pairings is “Who will be the dark horse teams”. Many times Billy Packer on a network,
Dick Vitale of the other, USA Today on Monday and so many media hacks and talking heads are picking a team. One year they all love Eastern Michigan, the next Princeton.
Dark horse teams have an element of surprise and a motivational “no respect” factor. After all the regurgitating paparazzi decide what the flavor of the month is for March, are they no longer dark horses?
Not only is there no surprise element, but what better way to insure his superior team doesn’t underestimate their opponents than to point out that the media has listed their enemy as one of the potential Cinderella teams?
In fact, the scenery and the invisible opponent I would not be surprised if Gonzaga, who has three-time glass shoes, now becomes an early cause, because for the first time they face the burden of high expectations.
Don’t talk yourself into betting on every game
I understand that there are casual gamblers who bet as I like to call it “lunch money” in games. As long as they are only risking entertainment money to make the game interesting for them, it is harmless. And there’s always a book to help.
However, when it comes to betting on the banks, don’t feel like you have to bet on every game that’s televised in your area. Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to watch good investments. Don’t check the morning sports page to see what’s on your local channel and convince yourself that this is one of the strongest board games. Plus, if you choose the sports bar option, you can get Final Four caliber waiter service. Just don’t warn the woman.
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