What Channel Is The Ncaa Football Game On Tonight Profitable Correlated Parlay Strategies

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Profitable Correlated Parlay Strategies

Parlay bets are one of the most profitable products sportsbooks can offer their customers. When bookies place a straight bet, the theoretical house hold is 4.5%. On parlay betting, this profit margin effectively increases by the number of bets, or legs, that are included in the parlay. So, in a match between two teams, the sportsbook can expect to earn 9% of the total money wagered. Considering the math, it’s easy to see why it’s in the best interest of sportsbooks to attract customers to this type of betting.

Although parlays are usually money machines for sportsbooks, there is one big exception to the rule: tied parlays. A parlay is considered reciprocal if the result of one of the bets in the parlay has a significant effect on the result of another bet in the parlay.

To illustrate this point I will use a clear NFL example using AFC live betting and Super Bowl betting. If you bet on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl, then they obviously have to win the AFC Championship to get to the Super Bowl, so the AFC is a 100% Super Bowl matchup. Combining these bets is an obvious winning strategy that no sportsbook will allow you to place.

Now let’s take a look at some of the less involved parlays that local sportsbooks and bookies allow you to make. Consider an NCAA football game in which USC is 35.5 points to beat Fresno State and is overmatched by 47 points. For USC to cover the 35.5 point spread they need to score at least 36 points. If they are successful in doing so, then you should be very careful betting the game goes over 47 points because covering USC effectively gives you 36 points to start the game. In fact, if Fresno gets just one touchdown, then you automatically win the bet if USC covers the spread.

The previous example is a common type of reciprocal parlay between betting on the favorite and betting on the overall score. Any equally strong correlation exists by betting on the underdog, and the betting generally goes down. It has been proven that there are negative correlations if you try to combine favorites and unders, or neutrals and overs, into a parlay. I strongly recommend staying away from these “anti-correlation parlays” unless you are looking for a strategy to lose money as quickly as possible!

The higher the total to spread ratio, the stronger the correlation. The rule of thumb is that if you divide the spread by the total and get a number greater than 0.35, you can blindly bet these reciprocal parlays and make money in the long run.

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