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Simple NFL Systems #40 – Favorites Of At Least 14 Points Coming Off A Big Win ATS
For those of you who like to bet on perennial Super Bowl contenders: here’s a very straightforward NFL betting system that includes favorite by at least 14 points who was 20-0 ATS over the past 14 seasons and 3-0 ATS last year alone.
Spreads of at least 2 TDs aren’t actually as common as you might think: Since 1994, only 93 games have been played with a 14+ point streak, and the favorites have a modest 46-47 ATS record during that span.
Thanks in part to New England’s early dominance last season, 2007 saw the highest number of 2-touchdown spreads in 15 years: a total of 13 games had a streak of at least 14 points. After getting burned in the first half of the season, the linebackers caught up to the Patriots, and by the end of the season, the big guns were only 6-7 against the number.
Now, before I go on to anything else, it’s important to note that trends or systems that cover a smaller number of games like this are better at predicting future results than a trend that covers, say, 100-200 games. includes, are less reliable.
Additionally, systems that typically only play a fraction of the league’s teams (in this case, only 34.4% of teams have participated at one time or another) are also more vulnerable to declining fortunes.
That said, a small system like this that includes a limited number of related conditions can be a useful tool for disrupting a game where there are no significant trends or other important betting information. In other words: I do not recommend choosing based on alonein a trend of this nature, however, if you need to choose for some reason (ie, the office pool), a 54-56% chance of success (as this angle basically provides) is better than nothing.
Now that I’ve raised the caution flag about using systems in this category, let’s get back to exploring the logic behind this particular trend.
Betting on big favorites is a habit that is usually associated with a large number of “squares” bet each week, and as the 46-47 ATS record shows, it is also a surefire way to lose money in the long run.
When we look at the big favorites that the arrival of a significant victory of the ATS; but we suddenly take a very advantageous situation into our hands.
Since 1994, favorites of at least 14 points that come out 14 points or more ATS win are hard 21-7 ATS (75.0%) net profit of $1,330.00 when betting $110.00 for a return of $100.00 per event.
In contrast, the big favorites that they could not spread in their previous game or covered by less than a field goal 16-28 ATS in their next game – with a 2-5 ATS record last season.
The lesson here is pretty clear: big favorites play until they far exceed the betting public’s expectations. As soon as they cannot cover the spread with power, abandon them and move on to other possibilities. That pattern certainly applied to the Pats last season, as it has to many dominant teams over the past decade and a half.
There is actually a finale average The condition that I want to add to this system is where to remove the games our favorite big rival has a better record outside of their division than inside. Given that games with a 2-touchdown spread are more likely to be a non-divisional game than a divisional one, an opponent with a superior record in this situation could pose a problem for the favored team.
The NFL rankings listed in the newspaper or on the Internet usually do not determine a team’s “non-division” record, so the easiest way to determine this last term is by comparison. in general winning percentage with divisional winning percentage. A higher winning percentage clearly shows that this team is playing its best football against non-league opponents.
When this last mode is added, the registration of this system is improved 20-0 ATS since 1994. Here are all the details, including the top 4 teams in the last 14 years.
(Notes: ASMR For the average rating is the margin spread. A positive rating indicates a stronger-than-average trend in relation to the line, a negative one – a weaker-than-average one. TDIS% the percentage of teams in the league that once faced this situation. wt% The percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR The spread is average for teams in this situation. For more details, please refer to page 13 of the 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide.)
System #40 Summary
Initial conditions (building blocks)
1) Favorite >= 14 points.
2) ATS margin >= 14 in last game.
Secondary conditions (predisposing factors)
1) Eliminate opponent with Total WP >= Divisional WP (DWP).
Top Teams: SF(4); NE(3); STL(3); SCORE(2)
In total (since 94): 20-0 ATS
2007 season: 3-0 ATS
2006 season: 0-0 ATS
2005 season: 2-0 ATS
2004 season: 0-0 ATS
Last 3 results. Select in Brackets
2007 WK7–NE 49 MIA 28 (NE -16) V
2007 WK5–NE 34 CLE 17 (NE -16.5) B
2007 WK3 – NE 38 BUF 7 (NE -16.5) W.
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