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Gab Session – NFL Drafters Should Believe Their Eyes
The NFL draft is such a strange combination of division and groupthink. When you hear seven “experts” say the same thing over and over again, you believe it’s your own opinion. Often the “experts” who repeat the same points of conversation got their opinion from someone else. Probably works for the player’s agent.
I don’t know what the Oakland Raiders are going to do in the 2007 NFL Draft. But I watch a lot of college football. What I do know is that JaMarcus Russell is not a great football player for all the inhuman gifts he is said to have. He is not alone. LSU is one of those schools that (at least during Russell’s nearly three years as a starter) has done enough to be pretty good. But at LSU, Russell had periods on the field where he was kind of uninteresting. Or maybe the word is wrong. Maybe “bad” is the word I’m looking for. I mean, isn’t LSU the team that struggled to score against Auburn, Florida and Mississippi last year? Didn’t they have one of the scariest defenses in the country, but an offense that could get out of their way on a regular basis? And the idea that Russell has a lot of accuracy with his powerful right arm isn’t entirely true. He was great in the Sugar Bowl, I’ll give you that, but Notre Dame’s defense was pathetic in ’06.
Calvin Johnson, on the other hand, is amazing. I watched a bunch of Georgia Tech games last year, too, and I thought, “Boy, Johnson is a great player.” And also: “Son, Reggie Ball is not very good.” I mean, Johnson caught 15 touchdowns and 76 passes for 1,202 yards from a guy who never posted a quarterback rating above 66.8 in his four years at Georgia Tech. Trust your eyes. Johnson has been undetectable at the NCAA level, and defenses must devise a two-man scheme to keep him close the moment he steps onto the NFL field. Does he score every time he touches the ball? No. But whoever drafts Johnson immediately has a better running game because safeties are instructed to run Johnson’s route and a better receiving corps because Johnson draws double teams.
I know Oakland needs a quarterback. I know they have (a grumble) Randy Moss. But they have to believe their eyes. They should get Calvin Johnson.
The NFL draft is this weekend. What do you think are the biggest stories and which newcomers will make an immediate impact on their new teams?
BoDog Bookmakers, BoDog.com: You can expect to see some businesses shaking up the draft order this year. Many teams covet Calvin Johnson, and Detroit knows it. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately, depending on your take on the situation), the Lions have loaded up on wide receivers in recent drafts. Matt Millen picks Johnson #2 and then makes trade offers for this future superstar. Meanwhile, it’s hard to say which of the newer ones will have the biggest impact without actually knowing which team they’ll be playing after the dust. If we look at the players who are most ready for the NFL, they have to be Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Calvin Johnson and Gaines Adams.
The Yankees may be off to a slow start, but A-Rod certainly isn’t. What are your odds that Alex Rodriguez breaks the single season home run record this year?
BDB, BoDog.com: A-Rod has been phenomenal throughout his career. Unfortunately, he’s still 60 home runs away from that particular record, and he’s actually behind the ridiculous pace set by Barry Bonds in 2001. Can you believe the Bonds had 14 in 14 games? Despite the injury, Rodriguez will be pretty close, but when games start to mean a little more, pitchers will swing around him or just intentionally walk him to avoid his swing entirely. At this point, I put the line at 7/1.
Are the absolute toast Miami Heat down 2-0 in their playoff series against Chicago, or do you give them a legitimate chance to come back and win?
BDB, BoDog.com: Dwyane Wade’s shoulder injury has slowed the Flash to a lethal speed. His supporting cast has been abysmal to say the least, and without additional help, an injured Wade will not be able to repeat last year’s brilliance. We will see the results of the NBA rule change to give the team with the best home court record instead of giving it to the team with the highest score. If Miami can get two straight at home and know the next game in Chicago, they have a chance. But it is small.
One round of the NHL playoffs, want to change your Stanley Cup predictions? Which teams surprised you and who made it to the finals?
BDB, BoDog.com: Buffalo is still the likely favorite in the East, but I have to say Ottawa has been impressive. They’ve always had firepower, but now Ray Emery is showing he can handle the pressure of the playoffs. This gives Ottawa its first reliable goaltender since 1999. Whichever team wins the San Jose-Detroit series will go through in the West. The Canucks and Ducks will be an entertaining series with all its subplots, but I don’t think either team will have enough left to beat the Wings or Sharks in the next round.
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