What Is The Score Of The Ou Football Game NFL System Spotlight #22 – Play Book Execution Penalties

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NFL System Spotlight #22 – Play Book Execution Penalties

There’s no doubt that rushing and passing stats are the primary tool of choice for handicappers looking to gauge team strength and point spread accuracy for any given game. My analysis is no different in some ways – many of my cases rely on fundamental rankings such as ROF and PDE, which use yard-per-play statistics to reveal cases that were beneficial relative to the line.

What gets lost in all the focus on how teams rush and pass the ball; however, it stands to reason that there are other equally important aspects of team play that can be inherently predictive, such as some of the more common measures of team skill.

One such area that often flies under the disability radar is statistics related to team penalties and as we can learn here, certain species Fines can be a very powerful tool in the right circumstances.

I’ve always found penalties to be a fascinating aspect of the NFL game, and their impact is undeniable – no one has felt the sting of an errant penalty suddenly inflicted on a drive that seemed to have ended just moments before. The victory was all but sown. Inappropriate penalties can cost a team a game in the blink of an eye and turn a spread winner into a loser than a TO can sign the ball (in the end zone of course).

I actually followed the punishment yard statistics from the 1994 season and fine differential (average per game that calls for penalties Opponents minus penalties called on the team in question) is the basis of another successful streak, 78-14 ATS over the past 13 seasons.

While it’s good to know how many penalty yards a team averages per game or previous game, this type of analysis doesn’t tell us what types of penalties are awarded and the actual way that penalty yardage totals the final listed score. arrived in a box.

Is the team in question receiving too many offensive calls due to a lack of size on the line? Or, will they face a slew of pass interference calls forced by an injured secondary CB? By breaking down the penalties into more detailed categories and assigning them based on the number of calls, as opposed to yards, we can have better answers to the above questions.

Ultimately, most penalties called in the modern NFL game can be assigned to one of the following 6 categories:

1) False Start Penalties (FSP)

2) Offensive Holding Penalties (OHP)

3) Play Book Enforcement Penalties (PBEP)

4) Defense Line Penalties (DLP)

5) Secondary Defensive Penalties (DSP)

6) Dumb Penalties (DMP)

The category that is the focus of this article is the 3rd on the list: Penalties for Play Book Execution. This category includes any violation related to breaking game calls. Examples of these include: Illegal organization, shifts, movements, moments, participation, substitutions and procedures; Game delay (in some cases); Illegal forward transfers; 12 people on the field; Incompatible receivers, etc. For complete information on other categories, please refer to page 12 of the article 2007 NFL Game Sheets Guide.

The league average for PBEP is usually around 0.7 calls per game (per team). Arizona was worst in the league in 2006 for PBEP against averaging 1.5 per game while Pittsburgh and Denver were 1-2 in the league with PBEP averaging 0.2 and 0.4 per game respectively.

As a stand-alone statistic, PBEP is a good yardstick for measuring the quality of a team’s coaching staff and also shows whether players are being used in schemes they are comfortable with and have the skills necessary to succeed. It’s no coincidence that teams like the Steelers and Patriots average a low PBEPA year after year, while others, like the Cardinals, are near the bottom.

When it comes to deformity and point spread, PBEPA becomes a useful tool when teams with very high PBEPA are checked.

Since the 2002 season, the teams with the average PBEPA more than double the league average of 0.7 (more precisely > +1.5) are sad 168-213 (44.1%) ATS against the number. In the past 5 seasons alone, placing bets based on this simple strategy alone would have earned you a net profit of $2,820 with a $110 bet for a $100 return per game.

There is actually a “Building Block” or precondition that I like to use for this situation and that is: includes only games where the opponent has a defensive secondary penalty against average (DSPA). When this condition is added, the status log is reduced to 55-110 (33.3%) ATS and profits jump to $4,950 in the last 5 years.

DSP penalties include flags thrown primarily on corners and safeties, usually for defensive interference and illegal contact. The complex relationship between PBE and DS penalties is something that requires further study on my part, but suffice it to say that for whatever reason, they are intertwined, and the dramatic improvement that this situation achieves is when only teams with average DSPA are higher. included is proof of their correlation.

Compounding this situation are two secondary conditions. The first specifies that games with more than 38 under 38 are not included, and the second excludes teams that have a bye week (teams with problems with PBEPA do better compared to the spread of an extra week).

Here are all the details.

(Notes: ASMR For the average rating is the margin spread. A positive rating indicates a stronger-than-average trend in relation to the line, a negative one – a weaker-than-average one. TDIS% the percentage of teams in the league that once faced this situation. wt% The percentage of teams that are .500 or better and SPR The spread is average for teams in this situation. For more details, please refer to page 13 of the 2007 NFL Game Sheet Guide.)

Situation Summary #22 (Last Updated: January 15, 2008)

Initial conditions (building blocks)

1) Penalty Play Book Enforcement Against (PBEPA) Average > +1.5 Per Game.

2) The opponent has a higher defensive secondary penalty average (DSPA).

Secondary conditions (predisposing factors)

1) The team does not have a bye week.

2) Statistical Over/Under Status Exception (OU).

ASMR: +0.2

house%: 56.3

Dog%: 52.4

TDIS%: 87.5

WT%: 38.8

SPR: +0.12

Top teams: ARI(13); CLE(10); PHI(9); SEA (9)

Status record

Overall (since ’01): 21-82 ATS

2007 season: 2-5 ATS

2006 season: 0-7 ATS

2005 Season: 5-20 ATS

2004 Season: 10-30 ATS

Last 3 results. Select in Brackets.

2007 WK15–VKD 22 BAL 16 (BAL -3.5) l

2007 WK13–NYJ 40 MIA 13 (NYJ +1) W

2007 WK11–PHI 17 MIA 7 (PHI -9.5) V.

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