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Football Pools – Some Basic Elements in a Strategy to Optimise Your Chances
The results in the coupon/number of a particular game of the football pools are random, but in the individual games where the strengths of the teams are measured and compared, they are not random under the conditions that I define.
Let’s compare pools to Roulette. Many see Roulette as a game of chance. Of course it is not, at least from the point of view of the casino. The ‘house’ – that is, the casino – has an edge. In Europe, this advantage is 2.70%, which is established by law, but this is all that is necessary in the long run to ensure the profit of the House of America.
So, the basic approach to winning at football pools is to make sure you have an advantage – that is, the odds of winning are slightly biased in your favor over the odds.
In general, football teams play widely, although not all results match the form, which works for football pool companies. I claim that it is possible to identify a strategy that optimizes the probability of winning.
Of course, to win the ‘jackpot’ in British football pools – the absolute maximum prize – you must have 8 matches on a line and there must only be 8 wins on the coupon and, of course, you must be the only one. that line that week. The odds are very long – just picking 8 draws out of 16 games has odds of 451 million to 1.
So what are the key elements of a strategy to improve your odds of winning?
One of the elements is the way the entry is placed. Specific plans and permits are essential. These are ways to include multiple lines in weekly entries that offer different levels of “coverage” and “guarantee” that should be measured against your budget and attitude to risk. It’s a whole sub-genre with many advocates for both causes and many arguments as well. Strong cases on both sides – and this usually means that the difference is negligible, with plans offering specific and limited guarantees and full 100% guarantees (provided you’ve selected 8 win points in your entry of course), but Fewer matches are given per budget.
As the House has a long-term edge in Roulette, it is important to see the winner of football pools as one potential long term opportunity. This leads to the need for persistence. A week you didn’t do them could be a week you won. You must persevere. The “percentage” relationship is important. So persistence is the second component of strategy.
Finally, one of Sun Tzu’s precepts was to always fight on territory you have chosen If we think about comparing ourselves to a casino, would a casino open a roulette table on a night where there was no statistical edge?
Probably not, although they can see it in the long term and about the happiness of their customers. After all, big wins are good for their marketing, even though they are not good for their profits.
So, to optimize your long-term advantage in the pools, don’t spend your stake in tournaments where teams are less likely to play to form, such as the FA Cup (for the UK example). Unless, of course, you want it for fun! After all, many punters play roulette just for fun, and seriously do not expect to win. This is another key element of strategy.
Finally, I mentioned organizing in the first paragraph. This is the final piece of the strategic puzzle. Determine how to measure the performance of teams. Then you’re in a position to compare form ratings based on match and rule out obviously one-sided matches. This is the most important factor in strategy.
So, in summary, some key elements of a strategy to optimize your chances include:
1. Use plans or permits that maximize the coverage of your choice within your budget.
2. Think long and be patient.
3. Choose which week you play pools to maximize your chances of making teams.
4. Use a selection approach that measures team performance and allows you to eliminate clearly one-sided games or plays.
Here are four key elements of strategy to optimize the odds in your favor.
Copyright (c) 2009 Phil Marks
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