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How to Select 3 Draws Or 5 Aways in Football Betting – The Final Steps
UK Treble Chance is a game to select 8 winning lines from a list of 49 games per coupon. Some punters prefer to give it away on, for example, 3 or 5 away. This article briefly explains how to identify a potential winner or loser from a list of ranked games.
In a previous article, I wrote about how to create a proper checklist. This is a list of coupon games with a numerical rating for each. The numerical rating is simply a number that reflects the probability of a home win, a draw or an away win.
We then sort this list by growth potential (fitness ranking is the term I use). The ones with the most consistent rating I’ll mark as away and the ones on the other end I’ll mark as home. Correspondences with medium-term evaluations, I note as potential prospects.
Now, with 49 games per coupon, knowing where to “draw the line” between away/draw/home odds is a key decision.
An analysis of recent coupon results shows that about 45% of the games in the season were home wins, 26% were away and 27% were draws or draws.
Our selection of candidates
Now, on the face of it, this means that we simply divide our rating estimates according to these numbers. However, we know that not everything happens, we get some unexpected results and even some games that look like a certain home victory can end with an away result. Also, of course, no prediction system is perfect, even if all the results match the team’s form.
So the boundaries between home/draw/home are not clear and we need to cast our net wider and cover more games (with a triple chance). Although for 3 draws or 5 draws, the problem is more difficult – we have to pay more attention to individual games, team changes, injuries and other factors.
The 3 draws we need will be somewhere in our list of 20 possible games to pick. So how do we find them? We are not! We just set our coverage so that we “allow” any 3 out of 20. Now that’s a lot of lines – 1140 separate terms in fact. Even at 20 pence a line, that totals over £200, which is too much for most players. And of course, the betting odds may not cover this. If we are looking for, say, a 3 to 1 return (£600), then we need fixed odds of 3000/1.
Cut the list
One way we can do this is to reduce the number of rows, i.e. reduce coverage. So we have to shorten the list to say 12 choices. Every 3 out of 12 will be 220 lines – about £40 at 20 pence per line and we need fixed odds of 600/1 to return the target of 3 to 1 (£120).
Shortening the list means eliminating selections – this can be done by analyzing the matches and teams in detail or simply by taking the matches higher/lower in the ranking list, some from the end of home wins and some from away wins. end, and in proportion to the usual results of interest (45% of houses, 26% away). That’s about 6 home and 2 away removed to reduce coverage from 20 games to 12 games.
It may be difficult to find an online bookmaker that offers such bets and you may need to place such a bet in person at the bookmaker’s premises.
(c) 2010 Phil Marks
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