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2015 Most Over-Valued Fantasy Football Players
Overpriced fantasy football players aren’t necessarily players who will struggle this season. They are players who are drafted much higher in the draft compared to their projected output compared to players who are drafted much lower at the same position. The owners of a successful fantasy football team are owners who recognize the value of each round and design accordingly. There is no set methodology as to which position in each round or which players should be drafted in each round. As always, KNOW YOUR GRADING system and let that dictate your build strategy, and be flexible about your strategy so you can make changes on the fly based on how you draft so that player value is still affordable. admit it.
Assuming a standard fantasy football scoring system, we want to quote players we see as highly developed compared to other players in their position. Here are the most valuable fantasy football players to date, according to their average draft position.
Question: Peyton Manning (Denver) – Peyton showed his age at the end of 2014. He was still the third highest rated QB last season, but that won’t happen this year and he will be drafted as the third QB. Manning is a little slower, throws more INTs, the Broncos rely more on their running game, and Peyton has lost a few weapons. Wes Welker and Julian Thomas are gone, and RB CJ Anderson is down. I still expect 4,000 yards and 30 TDs from Peyton, but you can get that kind of production later in the draft from numerous other QBs… QBs that are much younger and more mobile than the 39-year-old Manning.
RB: Jonathan Stewart (Carolina) – Many people feel that Stewart is coming off his last season and that will set him up for success in 2015. Sure, he has 100 ypg in his last 4 games and the Panthers let RB DeAngelo Williams go, but I don’t buy it. He’s had just one injury-plagued season of more than 200 carries and has already tweaked his ankle this summer. If you decide he’s worth the risk, be sure to grab Cameron Artis-Payne as well to get the job done on trade day.
WR Sammy Watkins (Buffalo) – Sammy Watkins is as talented a receiver as it gets in the AFC East, but you won’t notice this season. Kyle Orton was a serviceable QB, but he’s retired and the roster of QBs now in Buffalo is maddening; Matt Cassel, EJ Manuel and Tyrod Taylor. Coach Rex Ryan has been in this situation before and I can guarantee you he will try to win by running the ball and let his defense do most of the work. Also, Sammy is recovering from hip surgery, which definitely doesn’t help. The NFL is full of quality WRs, so don’t waste your pick on Watkins because it could be a wasted pick.
TE Julius Thomas (Jacksonville) – Julius is very talented, but he will never see the production he had in Denver again. Of course, he has 46 million reasons not to be too upset about it. Thomas’ greatest value has always come in the form of TDs. Because Denver had so much talent, he was never relied on to be a catch/yard heavy option. Now, Jacksonville is largely devoid of receiving talent, so that could mean Thomas will make up for his drop in TD receptions with more catches and yards, but it also means he’ll face double teams. became He’s too risky to think about taking him in the single-digit rounds when there could be a half-dozen tight ends who could end up with the same numbers or better that would be drafted in the double-digit rounds.
K Stephen Gostkowski (New England) – Gostkowski was the NFL’s leading scorer last season, so he must be the highest drafted kicker, right? Well, I would agree, but why take ANY shots before your last or second to last round? Philly K Cody Parker was only 2 field goals behind Gostkowski in points and no one is thinking about taking the WR4 or RB4. Fill your seat before taking the shot.
D Seattle – WAIT on your defense as well as one hit. Unless you have a strong scoring system that heavily rewards defense, the difference in points between the top ten defenses is too small to even consider defense in single-digit rounds. Seattle gets a lot of press and has been to two straight Super Bowls, but they weren’t the best defense in fantasy last year, even after having an ADP in single-digit rounds. In fact, in some formats, they were the 7th-9th best defense in 2014. Before I hit, I always start two rounds ahead and take my first defense and then my second defense. The top defense changes every year. Who would have thought Philly had the top fantasy defense last season?
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