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Beat the NFL Bookies
Take a breath. The dog days of summer have come and gone.
The thermometers may disagree, but sports bettors should be warned that the best action of the summer is fast approaching.
Bettors tend to tire of the monotony of the Major League Baseball regular season by the end of July. Then, like a cool sea breeze, the NFL blesses bored bettors with a breath of fresh air.
NFL training camps opened for the season on July 27. Over the next two weeks, teams begin a grueling schedule of curfews, diets and two days off to get in shape for the upcoming season. Next month, all 32 NFL teams will be working to make the playoffs.
The NFL kicks off its preseason this week. This time of the year is definitely the best kept secret in bookmaking.
Most NFL fans know that very little can be learned from preseason games. The main purpose of hitting style competitions is for coaches to evaluate starting lineups. Last year’s starters are only on the field for a handful of games, mostly to avoid rust during the offseason. While they will see their only time in the season, backup players and rookies will get the majority of snaps and hope their performance earns them a roster spot.
For the first (and only) time in the NFL season, linebackers won’t dominate. They blindly create lines, force the spread as if the games were regular season contests.
The reason they stay in this situation is simple. There is no thinking on their part how the reserve players and rookies will play. How can bookies make accurate lines when players they haven’t seen play are taking snaps?
Example. When the St. Louis Rams play Kansas City on August 23rd, the spread and over will be set, given that KC’s defense (one of the five WORST in 2003) will give up every snap against the high-flying St.Louis. is ready passing offense that ranked third in 2003.
The spread of this competition may favor St. Louis (for this example, we say it does). The Rams’ three-point offensive monster (quarterback Mark Bulger; receivers Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt) likely won’t play at halftime. Also, KC’s one-man offensive machine running behind Priest Holmes should see more of the field. These two events open the game wide open. Your guess on the outcome is only as good as the bookies.
In the second half, he should see a field full of unknown players. Who knows where the game will go from there? Will it be a low-profile race, or a barnburner? No one can be absolutely sure. This comes as great news for punters and bad news for punters.
“The NFL season is easily the most unpredictable time for offshore sportsbooks,” said Anthony Wayne, director of marketing for EWINNER.com. “A lot of times, the field is full of players with the same skill set. Without great players on the field, how are the carriers supposed to know who the favorite will be?”
Below are some pre-season matches that can be very useful for sports bettors. Strike while the iron is hot. (All statistics published by the Golden Leaf):
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers, 8/19, 8:00 p.m. on FOX: New York finished 4-12 last year and failed to cover the spread in its final eight games, but they have recovered by getting quarterback Kurt Warner reloaded as a coach. to rookie quarterback Eli Manning and a new coach, former Jaguars boss Tom Coughlin. Coughlin is a safe preseason bet with a 16-8-1 exhibition record against the spread.
With the exception of their offensive line, Carolina has retained most of the lineup that won the NFC championship last season. The Panthers covered the spread in their last five preseason contests, but four of those came as underdogs. In the 2003 regular season, they went 3-9 when dominated.
Bet: Coughlin and his G-Men, especially if Carolina likes it.
Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens, 8/12, 8:00 p.m. on ESPN: After a season of drastic changes, Atlanta has nothing to do after finishing 2003 with the worst defense in the league. New coach Jim Mora, Jr. is looking to put some youth in his booth, and with Michael Vick healthy, the 2004 Falcons should play more like the 2002 playoff team. During Vick’s first two seasons, Atlanta was 7-1 in the exhibition season; last season, they went 0-4 (Vick broke his leg in Atlanta’s second preseason game).
Baltimore should be the beast of the AFC North this year as well as a Super Bowl contender from week one. Quarterback Kyle Boller will have a year to learn and their rushing offense (thanks to marathon HB Jamal Lewis) will be complimented by newly acquired Kevin Johnson. This team should improve on last season’s 10-6 record as their stout defense remains one of the NFL’s toughest. Head coach Brian Billick is 11-4 career in exhibition games against the spread, and is 6-2 as an underdog. Last year, the Ravens were just 1-3.
Bet: Atlanta if Vick stays healthy. Keep an eye on Baltimore, especially if they are at risk.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles, 8/26, 8pm on ESPN: Pittsburgh has a lot to recover from last season; mostly injuries. Their offense was only on paper, thanks to injuries on the offensive line and a lack of carries for “The Bus” (Jerome Bettis), who averaged just 3.3 yards per touch. Head coach Bill Cowher has become a perennial preseason bullpen artist. His team went 0-4 heading into the regular season last year, and they’ve had trouble covering the spread in past seasons as well (0-4 the last two seasons at home and in the spread).
Philadelphia is once again the favorite to go to the Super Bowl in the NFC. They addressed two of their most pressing needs in the offseason, adding tight end Terrell Owens and defensive end Jevon Kearse. Eagles also tend to breathe. Unfortunately, the preseason is no different. For his career, coach Andy Reid is 2-7 in exhibition games when the home team has the advantage.
Betting on: Philly. These games do not count. They are less likely to leave it.
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys, 8:30 p.m., 8:00 p.m. on ABC: The Titans shed a lot of salary (and talent) in the offseason, but they’ll still find a way to contend for the playoffs thanks to ironclad QB Steve McNair . Tennessee’s 13 draft picks will see a ton of snaps before the season starts as this team tries to become a solid unit. A virtual lock in exhibition games, the Titans swept all four of last season’s preseason games against the spread and are 7-1 in the last four road games. As a neutral, they are more than a sure bet, perfect 6-0.
Eddie George, a Titan until July, is now working in Dallas. George must have a big chip on his shoulder after being one of Tennessee’s minimum wage victims. The 2004 Cowboys will also feature Keyshawn Johnson and rookie QB/minor league baseball player Drew Henson. Henson will see a lot of photos at shows to overcome his diamond ring. Dallas went 10-6 last season, the best record in Bill Parcell’s first season as head coach. However, quality opponents (teams with a winning record) went 4-2 against them last season, 3-1 against the spread.
Bet on: Titans. With their record in the preseason and Dallas’ tendency to lose to good teams, this should be a sure win.
For more information on NFL wagering, plus links to preferred online sports betting, check out Bet-Online-Sports.
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