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Football Betting – End-of-Season Games
Everyone loves Trier, especially when it comes to getting ready. There is nothing more exciting for players than to find out that your selection is “off” and you didn’t even get a fair run for your money.
Blanket television coverage and greater transparency of betting exchanges have raised awareness of the “non-trier” issue in horse racing, but football punters should be wary too. It is clear that all is not well in the world of football, with the recent scandal in Germany involving referee Robert Heuser, the ongoing investigation into some Italian results and irregular betting patterns on unknown European and international matches.
Fortunately, the consistency of results in the bigger leagues (and especially in England) shows that there is no reason for the players to lack confidence. The main problem – as in horse racing – is around the margins, in those matches (or races) that don’t stand up to the full glare of the media and where skulduggery breeds suspicion.
Everyone is trying so hard
However, my research shows that the “notier” issue rears its ugly head toward the end of the season, even in the major leagues. Most leagues are competitive enough that they go wire-to-wire in battles for championships, places in Europe and safety.
But, inevitably, some teams have nothing to play for in the final weeks of the season, which is where problems arise.
The final weekend of the league season consists of three games:
1. Games between two teams with something to play for.
2. Matches between two teams with something to play for.
3. Matches between a team with something to play for and a team with nothing to play for.
Out of focus
The commitment of both teams in the first category cannot be accepted unanimously, so the smartest betting strategy at the end of the season is to focus on the second and third categories.
Games in the second category should be evaluated using your usual methods. (Anyone who doesn’t know should read our football betting articles on inside-edge-mag.co.uk – Ed) but the best betting opportunities are often in the third category, where there is always the potential for ‘non -trier” exists. ‘.
This is not to say that there is anything hidden going on in these games, it’s just that a slight drop in interest from a team can make all the difference in a competitive league like the English Premier League.
There could be many reasons for the waning interest – including the popular belief that some players are “on vacation” before the end of the season. It is equally likely that, given the demands of modern football, an injured player will be rested after his team has nothing to play for, or maybe there will be some relief in training. Whatever the reasons, our results at the bottom of this article show that a team with something to play for is more likely to be in a game against a team with nothing to play for.
Among the top three English divisions and major European leagues we analyzed (Spanish Liga, German Bundesliga and Ligue 1), these games typically have a 50-60% win rate for a team with something to play for and win. they bring rate of 20-30% for the team without playing. The stats vary slightly from year to year and league to league, but are generally pretty consistent.
It’s a bone of contention for some that numbers like these provide conclusive evidence of the trier effect, but there is one important piece of supporting evidence that changes the issue for me. If there was no correlation between the results and a team’s immediate need for points in such matches, we would expect the win rate among higher ranked teams to be higher than the teams struggling near the bottom, as this would be the case throughout the rest of the game. happened the season In fact, teams struggling to avoid relegation have an unusually high win rate in such late-season fixtures – virtually on par with those at the top of the table chasing titles and places in Europe. . or playing games.
Fight to survive
For example, the last five English Premier League seasons have produced a 55% win rate for teams with something to play for. This number does not matter whether the team is in the top six or the bottom six.
It’s a similar story in other leagues, although the win rate for relegation-threatened teams in such games is usually slightly lower than that achieved by teams at the top of the table.
So, do these stats alone offer a good betting opportunity? There’s no simple answer, but there are some refining touches that can put those numbers to good use.
Let’s look at the big picture first. A 55% win rate gives the correct profit margin if the available average odds are equal, but this is unlikely in games where one team has something to play for and the other team does not.
Given the games that fell into this category in our top leagues last season, level betting would have resulted in small losses for all teams with something to play for. This was, in part, due to the lower-than-average wins by these teams last season, but a more important factor is the reduced odds that players are asked to accept on such teams.
How to win
Bookmakers usually take into account the “nothing to play for” syndrome when pricing late-season games, although a few slip through the net. If you’re good at making your matchbook, you’ll be able to spot these games – otherwise, you’ll have a hard time profiting by going blind on teams that are playing something.
The counter-argument, of course, is that there is value in backing these sides, given that teams with nothing to play for will be available at artificially inflated odds in such games. However, due to the low win rates of these teams, this does not hold water. The problem for the players, as mentioned above, is knowing whether these teams will try hard enough – the evidence suggests that, by and large, they won’t.
So how can we be more likely to win? Well, a little more study of the statistics will give more general assumptions about the games of the end of the season.
Starting at the top, the end-of-season records of the league champions are quite revealing. There is clear evidence that once the title is arithmetically secured, there is a widespread tendency for champions to take their foot off the gas. For example, last season the Spanish and German champions were confirmed with two games to play – Valencia and Werder Bremen, the respective winners, then quickly lost their last two games.
This is far from an isolated example. In 2001, Manchester United lost their last three games to run away with the title, although it should be said that they had finished in the same position the previous season with four consecutive victories.
However, overall, the record of the already crowned champions shows that they are eager to win the tournament. In the leagues analyzed here, the champions’ win rate over the course of the season is usually over 60%.
But after winning the title, that has dropped to an average of 57% over the past five seasons. And the fall is even worse in games where they face a team with something to play for – so their win rate is only 45% on average.
A ton of profit
Overall, then, it’s worth going up against already crowned champions. Last season, in the leagues described here, this approach yielded a 24% return on the stock level. If you only focused on games where the opposing team still had something to play for, the strike rate against the champions would be 100% and the profit would be 125% of the stake level.
The only caveat is to be wary of any factors that could put pressure on the champions – an example is Arsenal last season when they were Premier League champions with four games to spare but wanted to maintain their unbeaten record. They have done so, but only with a 50% win rate in their last four games (two wins, two draws).
Another factor could be when a lower division side is chasing a mark such as 100 points – this was the case with Wigan Athletic in the old Second Division in 2003 when they reached three figures with two wins and a draw, although they were already champions.
Knowing that the champions are relieved when they have nothing to play for, it’s easy to assume that the relegated sides should be more inclined to do so. Again, the reality is more complicated.
Overall, in the leagues analyzed here, relegation teams have a 23% win rate when they are mathematically eliminated – very close to the average expected of teams in relegation zones over the course of the season. . In other words, they do not disintegrate after all hope is lost.
In fact, relegated teams have surprisingly good home records in the final weeks of the season. On average, they manage a fairly even home win, draw and loss split and in no league do their home losses exceed their total wins and draws – relegated teams always need to look at the Asian Handicap is home because they rarely, if ever, start on their opponents.
Where they perform most poorly is away from home. Even more remarkable is that they are usually lambs for the slaughter (home or away) against teams that still have something to play for. Their loss rate in such games is 70% and in the last five seasons no away team has registered a victory in such games in the top leagues of France, England and Germany.
This 70% loss rate equates to their opponents odds of around 2/5 or 4/9. The bookies are stingy with such teams, although you could have made a profit last season by backing teams that were relegated in such fixtures. With a little extra choice about the odds you’re willing to take (at least 1/2, say), there’s potential to make money on these games.
Mid-table teams are an area to tread carefully. While the statistics show that punters can generally root for sides fighting for the top spots or fighting off relegation, this is not the case for teams that have finished mid-table in the last few games of the season and none they have no motivation to rise and no fear. from falling in several places.
A final word
In the leagues analyzed here, the mid-table teams’ win rate in their final games doesn’t look too bad, averaging 33%, which is broadly in line with their regular season record.
However, the picture is not so rosy when the numbers are narrowed down to games against teams that have yet to play. Average safe teams’ win rate drops to 26% and their loss rate jumps to 49% (down from 41% overall).
Ultimately, end of season betting is all about the odds available. Pricing these games is a complex process and it is impossible to make hard and fast rules about when to bet or what odds to accept. However, it is important to appreciate the basic statistics because late season games are not governed by the usual rules of form and in many cases are a law unto themselves. A golden rule is this: make sure you know what your choice will be.
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